Observed declines in U.S. hail
There are ways to analyse observed hail reports to identify climate variations in recent decades. We apply these diagnostics, and find large declines in damaging hail, especially in the Southeast.
2025
2024
Climate Change and Hail
How does a warming planet impact hail risk in U.S. and Europe?
A new high quality hail record is used to calibrate a model, and uncovers significant upward trends over the past 60 years.
2023
U.S. Hail in 2023
How does the very high U.S. hail losses in 2023 compare to the past few decades of experience?
2022
Europe storm outlook 2022/23
The rising storm risk in Europe
Part 1: past variations
The rising storm risk in Europe
Part 2: future variations
What's the outlook for European windstorm activity this winter? A large body of research is distilled into a forecast of storm damage for winter 2022/23.
This blog describes how our storm climate has been rising recently, but we don't understand why. A re-framing of mid-latitude wind as a polewards heat gradient could help understand storm drivers.
The polewards heat gradient seems linked to multidecadal cycles in two major ocean regions, and they currently point to rising storminess through the 2020s.